Toyota Prius, which currently dominates the U.S. hybrid car market will face the most serious Challenger this year.
Honda shows its new Insight hybrid, which seems very similar to the Prius, in this week’s North American International Auto Show. It is smaller and less fuel efficient than the Prius, but is expected to sell for as little as $ 18,000, about $ 4000 less than the Prius.
“It is the first competitor to Prius,” said Tom Libby, senior director of industry analysis at Power Information Network of JD Power & Associates. “And it is from Honda, so I will be a major success.”
But Toyota is countering with an improved version of the Prius, which has become one of the top-selling vehicles in 2008. Toyota said on Monday the third generation Prius will average 50 miles per gallons, improving 4 miles. Insight will go to an estimated 40 miles per gallons in the city and 43 on the highway.
Toyota also unveiled the first hybrid sedan-only luxury Lexus division, aimed at consumers who are viewed as a Prius too basic and underpowered.

The Ford Motor Company plans to build hybrid versions of its medium-sized Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan sedans. Fusion is rated at 41 miles per gallons in city driving, a miles better than the Insight, but will cost at least $ 27,270.

Detroit of hybrids until now, have not grown anywhere close to the Prius, which represents 75 percent of U.S. hybrid market last year.

Large hybrid vehicles made by General Motors and Chrysler have not sold well, leading Chrysler to eliminate its full-size hybrid Sport utility vehicles after only a few months of this year.

Honda has also had difficulty making inroads with hybrids. The company stopped its original Insight - a car is often likened to a bathtub upside down - in 2006 and stopped building hybrid version of the popular Accord sedan with two years ago because of low sales.

One reason is the price of these vehicles, which generally cost several thousand dollars more than gasoline-only version of the same model. But when gas prices surged to more than $ 4 a gallons last summer was the most hybrids start to make financial sense for many people. Now that gas costs less than $ 2 a gallons, sales of hybrids have cooled.

One reason for the popularity of the Prius is its unique body style, which many drivers seem to like, for sending a clear signal on what others are driving. Many other hybrids are indistinguishable from gas-only models to save a small logo on the vehicle.

Now, Honda believes it can succeed with a similar look and a price advantage. The Insight will be the least expensive hybrid vehicle in the United States, and she will face off against the Prius, which is most effective in terms of vehicle fuel sold in this country.

“Toyota, to their credit, did one thing in fashion,” John Mendel, Executive Vice President of American Honda, said in an interview. “Insight was designed to make hybrid technology more affordable for consumers than it is today. It does not lead to big price stigma hybrids performing normally.”

Public at least, Toyota officials do not claim to be concerned for rival Prius. They said Toyota Prius expected to sell 180,000 cars in the first 12 months, 13 percent more than sold in 2008 and double Honda’s goal for Insight.

“I think it is going to help us expand the total consideration for hybrids,” James E. Lentz, president of Toyota Motor Sales in the United States, said at Insight.

But analysts say Toyota will have to work harder this year to fight for its share of a smaller market.

“I believe they have a competitor who is so close in form and ability and he is under a few thousand in any way helps Prius sales,” said Aaron Bragman, a marketing research automotive analyst with IHS Global Insight. “Cost of ownership is more important for most people than saving few miles more than one gallons. Now people are so sensitive to price vehicles.”

While much of the attention in Detroit this year’s show was focused on electric vehicles, which are still far away for many years, insists Toyota hybrids are not just a passing fad, regardless of gas prices. It plans to offer a hybrid version of every model has ten years beginning in 2020.

“We are committed to hybrid powertrain as our base,” said Mr. Lentz. “We believe that is the most versatile powertrain could go on.”

Mr. Libby of JD Power said Prius was more difficult to find in some parts of the country. He expects to be the case, even after reaching Insight dealers in April.

“There are enough people out there who want to make a statement in which they are aware of the environment to make these vehicles successful,”

Carmakers will close one of the most tumultuous years and unhappy in their history Monday when they report what is sure to be another awful lot of monthly sales figures.
Each of the six largest automakers, including foreign and domestic brands, is expected to say that its sales in the United States dropped by at least 30 percent in December. Bleakest numbers most likely will come from General Motors and Chrysler, which has received two billion dollars in loans from the federal government, at the end of December to help them to remain solvent.
Above all, say that 2008 will end up like the worst year for sales of cars and trucks in 1992. But this comparison does not capture how quickly the business has deteriorated in recent months, as tight credit markets and consumer confidence has sunk.
“This is a kind of self recession which, quite frankly, many of us have never been through,” Erich Merkle, an automotive analyst in Grand Rapids, Mich., The consulting firm Crowe Horwath, said Sunday. “We know that people who lost jobs are in the market for a new car, but even those who have jobs are not in the market right now, because they are concerned if we have a job in three, six or nine months. ”

George Pipas, Ford Motor Company is the chief sales analyst, estimated total industry sales for 2008 of approximately 13.5 million, a full three million fewer than in 2007. Not since 1974 the market collapsed so much in one year, he said.

Analysts said the December sales rate probably would be even worse than the 26-year lows reached in October and November.

“And since the early 80 years, there are 70 million more people who can drive a vehicle,” Mr. Pipas told reporters during a briefing Friday. “So this is even worse than the per capita in 1982.”

Although high gas prices significantly affected the number and types of vehicles sold throughout much of 2008, the rapid decrease in prices recently has done little to help the industry rebound. Sales from September through November were 31 percent lower than the same period in 2007, even as gas prices plummeted 54 percent. Sales of sport utility vehicles, which used to generate huge profits for Detroit automakers were 51 percent.

Mr. Pipas said SUV outsold passenger cars and light trucks last year for the first time since 2000. Sudden shift in consumer buying habits have left automakers scrambling to build more cars and fewer trucks.

Ford is retooling three former truck factories so they can make compact and subcompact cars, Toyota now plans to make its hybrid Prius sedan in a new plant if it had intended to build SUV’s. Last month, the company said it will delay opening the plant market, because it is in decline.

“In târziu’90s, our assumption was that light trucks could continue, and would turn back,” said Mr. Pipas. Now, he added, “I do not think passenger cars will look back again.”

Sales of trucks and SUV was probably higher than in December in recent months, most likely even outselling cars, analysts said, but is primarily driven by large discounts on many models. The average value of incentives on the vehicle was almost $ 1000 higher than in December a year ago, but the truck growth was almost $ 1500, Mr. Pipas said. Full-size trucks money now reduced by an average of $ 7000 to $ 8000.

G.M. Last week began offering zero percent or low-rate loans on several vehicles in a bid to attract buyers who were scared of a lack of credit. Its lending arm, GMAC Financial Services, received 5 billion U.S. dollars of investment from the Department of Treasury and immediately reduced the minimum credit-scoring for the customers.

Edmunds.com, a Web site that offers car-buying advice to consumers, cited news that is an unusual flurry of inquiries on its website and at retailers in the last days of December. Edmunds said some dealers reported making 40 percent of the entire month of sales in the last week and that the site of research on GM vehicles has increased more than other brands.

“Normally, I would say that such an increase in the last week of December is just the end of a typically high seasonal pattern, but in the current environment I would say is dramatically good news,” David Tompkins, a senior analyst with Edmunds, said.

However, automakers are not optimistic about being a vehicle for recovery in sales of at least several months. Recent unemployment numbers show continued weakness in the economy and consumer confidence remains at historic lows.

“Consumer confidence, all factors that look, that’s No. 1 driver of the new vehicle business,” Mark LaNeve, GM’s Vice President for North American sales and marketing, said in a conference call last week.

However, Mr. LaNeve said, “you’ve got to believe that 2009 will be a better year than 2008 was.

The financial crisis is a result of many bad decisions, but one of them has not received enough attention: the 1998 bailout of Long-term hedge fund Capital Management. If it were less regulations concerned with protection of fund creditors are currently problems may not be quite so bad.
For long-term capital has been advised by the finance Quants, or quantitative analysts, who made a number of unsound, esoteric bets, including investments in derivatives of interest. When Russia’s inability to pay its debts roiled global markets in the fund, saddled with high leverage and off-balance sheet obligations, was near collapse.
Because long-term large sums of capital due to banks and other financial institutions, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has organized a consortium of companies to buy it and cover debts. Alan Greenspan, then chairman of Federal eased monetary policy to restart the capital markets, which were to begin to freeze. Capital’s long-term shareholders have been deleted, but none of the creditors had losses.
At that time, it may appear that the regulators did the right thing. Bailout of upfront do not need money from the government, and the world, even greater avoided a financial crisis. Today, however, that ad hoc intervention by the government, no longer seems so wise. With long-term capital bailout as a precedent, creditors came to believe that their loans to unsound financial institutions would have done well by Fed - as long as these institutions collapse would threaten the global credit. Bolstered by the sense of security, bad loans mushroomed.

Of course, there were several reasons for reckless lending and risk management errors that led to the most recent shocks systemic credit. And we have now entered the realm of bailouts trillion dollars, big contagion from financial institutions, banks and a rapid deleveraging the economic crisis that some people are starting to compare the Great Depression.

Long-term capital small episode, when looking view of the fact that against all. But it was important precisely because the fund was not a big company. At its near death, was not even a large money center bank, but with a hedge fund of approximately 200 employees. Such funds were not made in accordance with this regulatory protection. After the episode, the financial markets knew that even relatively obscure institutions - government intervention - would be able to pay back bad loans.

The largest creditors of the fund included Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, who went on investment and give courage and a degree or another, pay the consequences. But in 1998 it was time for credible submit a warning that the bad loans overleveraged institutions would mean losses, and that neither the Fed nor the Treasury would make good losses.

What would have happened without a federal bailout-organized long-term capital? This remains an open question. A private consortium led by E. Warren Buffett may be purchased by the Fund, but the capital markets could be frozen because from the realization that the bailouts were not guaranteed.

Inaction and fed graver would have economic consequences, particularly if a Buffett deal fell through. In this case, a rapid financial deleveraging would be followed, and the economy would probably plunged into recession. Sounds bad, but it could have been better to have a milder version of reduction in 1998, more severe than in version 10 years later.

In 1998, there was no housing bubble collapsed, the government budget was in surplus rather than deficit, the bank leverage was much smaller and derivatives markets were smaller and less extensive . A financial crisis linked to the capital in the long term, however painful, would probably be easier to handle than the perfect storm last Monday.

Ad-hoc aspect of the bailout created a precedent for what has come to be called “rules of business” - now the government’s modus operandi. Definitely, rather than advertising standards and expectations for bailouts in advance, fed and treasury confront each particular crisis again. Decisions are taken as to whether a merger is possible, if a consortium can be organized, what kind of loan guarantees can be given and what kind of concessions will be extracted in return. So far, every business - or lack thereof, when Lehman Brothers - was different.

While there are some advantages to going out in the hands of regulators, this has not worked very well. It has become increasingly evident that the market does not know what to expect and that many financial institutions are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see what regulators will do next. Regulatory uncertainty is stifling the ability of financial markets to engineer at least a partial recovery.

John Maynard Keynes famously proclaimed that “the long term we are all dead.” From the position in 1998, today is indeed the “long term.”

We’re not quite dead, but we are seriously ailing. As we look ahead, we might be tempted to bring back the hard choices. But perhaps the next “long term” also is not more than 10 years away. If we take maximum Keynesian too seriously, and to focus only on the short run

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Behind the clouds and mist of cold
The warming light of sun doth show
Within the depth of darkling night
The stars yet shining out their light.

Will the time come to light my days
And shed those pain and lone away
Will someone come and hold me near
I long for thee to stop my tears

Will there be sun behind my clouds
Or will my star ever be found
I long, I wish, o my heart cries
For someone I could call as mine.

Finding time away from building a new business is never easy, but Ngozi Okoli-Owube glad aside her daily program earlier this year to go back to school to learn marketing, accounting and managerial skills had never had time to master.
For five months, Mrs. Okoli-Owube, 31, alternated work for a preschool learning-disabled children in Lagos, Nigeria, with weeklong stints at the Lagos Business School, joining a class of two dozen women to obtain a certificate in business management.
“I have a university degree, but we have training in how to run a business,” said Mrs. Okoli-Owube, which has been fighting to get enough students to enroll in the “Start Right” school. “I must learn to keep the books, how to market and to receive advice from women who have come from elsewhere.”
When he saw a local newspaper advertisement last spring for 10,000 women, a business worldwide led by Goldman Sachs, she and about 100 other women jumped at the chance to apply.
Welfare of girls and women was long on the agenda of international agencies. World Bank, for example, announced earlier this year steps to increase support for women entrepreneurs by channeling some 100 million U.S. dollars in credit lines for them until 2012.
But corporations began to take their economic power more seriously, especially in emerging markets.
Many corporate employees microloans programs, grants or gifts business to promote education. Goldman decided to adopt a different approach, after its research showed that per capita income in Brazil, China, India, Russia and other emerging markets could increase by as much as 14 percent if women had better management and entrepreneurial skills.

“It is not only where they are philanthropy,” said Geeta Rao Gupta, president of the International Center for Research on Women. Goldman “had the idea that investment in women is a return of the gross national product of the country, and on household income.”

The company has set aside 100 million dollars over five years to bring business education to 10,000 qualified women business owners in developing countries, a commitment has remained unchanged despite the banking industry turmoil.

Ms. Rao Gupta said that the long-term view that Goldman and others were taken into emerging markets, could help form a new layer in economic societies where women in business, traditionally has been restricted. The laws and customs in some countries, for example, bar women from opening bank accounts or require a husband’s permission to set up a company.

“This is the next step for women as it is long term, investing in business skills,” said Ms. Rao Gupta, Institute whose research and provide technical assistance to women in developing countries.

Obstacles can be lifted. Few women in Africa pursue a business education, many times to preserve and to make students heading for corporate jobs. In 50 major business schools in Africa - a continent of 900 million people - only 2600 women were enrolled in local MBA programs, Goldman research found.

To stimulate entrepreneurship and management education, business schools in developing countries are paired with 50 universities and organizations in Europe and the United States.

Earlier this month, for example, 10,000 women has announced that the Yale School of Public Health would work with Tsinghua University to provide management education and leadership for the Chinese women working in public health. Women remain at work, enabling them to be with their families and to apply their new skills on the spot.

“Women often do not have two years to get an MBA,” said Dina H. Powell, who oversees Goldman initiative. Family considerations and cultural differences make it difficult for many women to leave home to study abroad.

In Cairo, annually, about 100 business women can earn a certificate to participate in the scheme, where there are accounting, market research, e-commerce, fundraising and how the structure plan business.

In countries participating in school can be dangerous for women, another tack is taken. Thunderbird School of Management, Goldman, using the funds to bring Afghan women its Phoenix campus for five weeks of training. Bank financing is also training local teachers to teach business courses to women in Kabul.

AT & T has donated $ 125,000 through a foundation this year to bring women from developing countries in the United States for a period of three weeks of college-level business course and a week of mentorship with American women business owners.

“This is still a small part of what we do,” said Laura Sanford, president of the Foundation. “But it is an area that is going to grow as you become more recognized that women are part of the economic landscape and business owners who contribute to the economic welfare of their country.”

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